Some say it's just a matter of time before light-emitting diodes (LEDs) eclipse traditional light sources, although the sun isn't going to set on them tomorrow. Right now, cost is the most obvious barrier to the acceptance of LEDs, except in maintenance-intensive applications like traffic lights. The other is their low efficiency, which today stands at a maximum of about 20 lumens per watt. "If output can go up by 10 times, and the price can come down 10 times, then it will start penetrating into lighting applications," says the Lighting Research Center's Dr. Nadarajah Narendran, who envisions that these developments will take five to 10 years.
Color rendering capabilities must also continue to improve to make the technology practical for general illumination purposes. "We don't feel the white LEDs are quite ready for prime time," says Kevin Dowling of Color Kinetics, a Boston-based manufacturer of LED products. "But two years from now, I believe you'll be seeing massive improvements in efficiency and color."
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