“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” wisely opined Baseball Hall of Famer Yogi Berra. In these days of economic turmoil, construction industry observers may wish they had made better predictions. Might there have been ways to avoid the downturn, or at least mitigate its effect on architecture firms? According to McLean, Virginia—based consultant Raymond Kogan, AIA, looking ahead by projecting major industry trends can help firms avoid being fatally blindsided by future events. Better yet, anticipating what’s coming can reveal new opportunities for profitable work.
Most of the trends that Kogan suggests firms should be alert for are driven by demographic factors. Looking at population statistics, both at home and abroad, can yield insights about how to run your practice and where your next job might come from. For instance, if you know there was a baby boom 60 years ago, you can guess there will soon be retirements in your firm and a higher demand for elder housing. (But some trends Kogan advises firms to become familiar with depend less on population changes — sustainability, integrated project delivery, and building information modeling.)
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