Business Conditions at Firms Experience Modest Rebound in February
While the “subdued” business trend for architecture firms continues from winter into spring, the latest AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) demonstrates signs of life as temperatures warm and the country thaws out. While technically still in negative territory with a score of 49.4 (any score below 50.0 indicates softening business activity), the February ABI indicates that conditions—for now—are not in freefall, showing marked improvement from the previous score in January of 43.8. As noted by the AIA, a score of 49.4 indicates that a slight majority of firms reported declining billings in February. Will the next ABI creep up .6 points and cross over the 50.0 mark with a slight majority of firms reporting an increase in billings?
Per the latest report, while newly signed design contracts continued to fall, the rate of this decline slowed “significantly.” This suggests potential stabilization, though global economic uncertainty could throw a wrench into any sustained progress.
Image courtesy AIA
“While the ABI data shows some positive trends, the broader economy continues to struggle, with unemployment increasing in February,” said AIA chief economist, Richard Branch. “However, architectural services employment remained steady in January at 204,600, up nearly 2,000 positions from a year ago.”
Image courtesy AIA
Looking at regional averages, business at firms in the South remained flat with a score of 50.0 (down just slightly from the previous score of 50.2). Elsewhere, however, scores were soft in February, including in the Midwest (46.3), West, (47.2), and the winter storm–blasted Northeast, which fell slightly from 42.3 to 41.9.
Image courtesy AIA
Across specializations, billings continued to decline, although institutional firms' billings remained nearly flat with a score of 49.2
New to the ABI is a quarterly question asking firm leaders to predict how their firm's gross billings/billable work will compare between the current and next quarter. Nearly half (48 percent) of firm leaders expect billings to remain steady in Q2 2026 compared to Q1. About 31 percent anticipate a 5 percent or greater increase, while 21 percent foresee a 5 percent or greater decrease.
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